Penn has years where they take LOTS off the waitlist, and other years where they take almost nobody. As I’m seeing it, I think our shot at Penn will largely depend on what kind of year this is. In my terrible neurosis, I’ve compiled some LSN data trying to find some statistical basis for a prediction about what this year’s WL movement will look like. I can’t say there’s anything compelling here, but maybe one of you will see something I’m not.
Hoping this is a good WL year!
2005/2006
Accepted: 212
Accepted → Attending: 37
Accepted → Withdrawn: 105
% Accepted → Withdrawn: 49.5%
Waitlisted: 140
Waitlisted → Withdrawn: 50
WL → Accepted: 14
2006/2007
Accepted: 204
Accepted → Attending: 32
Accepted → Withdrawn: 118
% Accepted → Withdrawn: 57.8%
Waitlisted: 270
Waitlisted → Withdrawn: 106
WL → Accepted: 26
2007/2008
Accepted: 219
Accepted → Attending: 30
Accepted → Withdrawn: 111
% Accepted → Withdrawn: 50.7
Waitlisted: 229
Waitlisted → Withdrawn: 106
WL → Accepted: 17
2008/2009
Accepted: 162
Accepted → Attending: 31
Accepted → Withdrawn: 79
% Accepted → Withdrawn: 48.8
Waitlisted: 246
Waitlisted → Withdrawn: 112
WL → Accepted: 3
2009/2010
Accepted: 192
Accepted → Attending: 36
Accepted → Withdrawn: 82
% Accepted → Withdrawn: 42.7
Waitlisted: 221
Waitlisted → Withdrawn: 118
WL → Accepted: 8
2010/2011
Accepted: 165
Accepted → Attending: 30
Accepted → Withdrawn: 71
% Accepted → Withdrawn: 43.0
Waitlisted: 152
Waitlisted → Withdrawn: 84
WL → Accepted: 2
2011/2012 (as of April 26, 9:00am)
Accepted: 184
Accepted → Attending: 27
Accepted → Withdrawn: 70
% Accepted → Withdrawn: 38.0%
Waitlisted: 221
Waitlisted → Withdrawn: 107
WL → Accepted: ???
The only thing that I think might be taken to mean something positive for us is that we’re still five days pre-deadline, and the % Accepted → Withdrawn number is already creeping up close to the last two years’ numbers.
(usual caveats regarding LSN imperfections etc. apply)